With Pope Francis's death, many are looking toward the next conclave. Here are the "papabili": cardinals considered most likely to succeed Francis. This analysis presents the most probable candidates, grouped according to their theological and pastoral tendencies.
These cardinals are firmly attached to Catholic Tradition and strongly oppose recent reforms, particularly the restriction of the Tridentine Mass, secret agreements with China, communion for remarried divorcees, and blessings for same-sex couples.
His African origins would make him the first African pope since Gelasius I in the 5th century. Despite his considerable influence, Cardinal Sarah has never publicly expressed an active interest in becoming pope. He is known for his silent help to Benedict XVI to promote faithfulness to the Church's teachings.
These cardinals are aligned with the Ratzingerian line and are more conservative from a theological, moral, and pastoral point of view, while accepting the Second Vatican Council and its reforms.
Former Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, considered theologically orthodox and firmly supports the teachings of the Second Vatican Council. He has opposed the ordination of women to the diaconate and resisted changes to priestly celibacy in the Latin rite.
Strongly aligned with the Ratzingerian line, he sees the fight against institutionalized secular culture and the growing spread of a Godless religious sentiment as a challenge for the Church. He has expressed very harsh judgments against Fiducia supplicans, considering the document "ambiguous, divisive, and confusing".
A defender of orthodoxy and highly regarded as a spiritual director for priests, although he has not yet publicly spoken about the issue of Traditionis Custodes, it is known that he is strongly opposed to any restrictions on the Tridentine Mass. His advanced age (80 years) does not make him a leading candidate.
A multilingual and experienced cardinal, some see him as perfectly aligned with Benedict XVI. Liturgically, he has favored elements such as the restoration of altar rails and the reception of Communion on the tongue while kneeling. He also shares with Pope Francis some pastoral elements, such as concern for the poor and climate protection.
A great expert in bioethical issues due to his medical and theological training, he is known for his adherence to Catholic doctrine and his willingness to defend it, even on unpopular issues such as Humanae Vitae and the indissolubility of marriage. He has demonstrated great capability in the financial and pastoral reorganization of the dioceses where he has served.
Born and raised under the communist regime, Erdő has firsthand experience of what it means to defend religious freedom for Catholics. An esteemed canonist recognized internationally, his appointment as general relator for the synods on the family (2014 and 2015) further increased his prestige. He is unanimously considered a man of balance and unity.
Considered by some to be "too young," but perhaps this very element could favor him. His experience and his governance skills emerge from his long service in a crucial and complex region like the Holy Land. His Franciscan spirituality and his attention to the poor and suffering are further elements that could make him appealing.
Although no longer an elector (82 years old), his profile seems perfect in case the cardinals decide to opt for a "transitional pope" who nonetheless carries forward a traditional approach and a conservative leadership after the internal divisions within the Church during the years of Francis. He possesses human and spiritual qualities that would make him an authoritative and respected figure.
He seems to be the ideal candidate for the election of a pope with strong pastoral experience in difficult contexts and a pastoral focus on human rights and social justice (this would be appreciated by the Francis Party) and a deep understanding of the challenges of the Asian world. However, Bo is also a staunch supporter of the synodality promoted by Pope Bergoglio.
He was a strong contender for the papacy during the 2013 conclave, but has seen his status as a leading papabile diminish in recent years. Factors that initially favored him included his vast experience in the Church due to his decade-long leadership of what is now called the Dicastery for Bishops. Considered a "conservative prelate with a modern vision".
Praised by Francis in 2022 as "a person who can show us the way forward," he is also a leading papabile. Known for his open and optimistic personality, he has extensive experience in serving the Church, having held several important positions, including President of the Scandinavian Episcopal Conference and member of various Vatican dicasteries.
These cardinals occupy an intermediate position, very discreet in their assertions, but who are very likely sympathetic to the "Francis Party" while maintaining some more traditional positions.
Considered by some to be Francis's protégé. His dedication to migration issues and interreligious dialogue resonates with the priorities of the current incumbent. It is known that the two regularly meet in the Vatican, outside of official hours, and he is particularly appreciated by left-wing political and ecclesiastical circles. Aveline favors strong decentralization within the Church.
A strong supporter of liturgical inculturation and the Zairean rite. After the promulgation of Fiducia supplicans, Ambongo rose to media prominence for strongly criticizing the document as inappropriate and even "Eurocentric." While defending the traditional values of the Church on issues such as family and priestly celibacy, he has shown openness to dialogue on other matters.
Although not among the leading papabili, he is highly regarded for his extensive diplomatic and curial experience. There are also aspects that could hinder his election: in particular, he lacks experience in leading dioceses and is identified with the "old Italian bureaucratic guard."
These cardinals are favorable to Francis's reforms and wish to continue or deepen his orientation. They represent the most progressive wing of the papabili and are generally favorable to decentralization, greater inclusion, and adaptation of the Church to contemporary realities.
He possesses a vast knowledge of the German-speaking Church and the theological challenges it poses, which is very crucial today, given the importance of maintaining the Church's unity in a German context very prone to divisions and schisms. His skepticism toward the German Synodal Path might garner the sympathy of some more conservative electors.
The current Vatican Secretary of State, a very prominent role in the Roman Curia. In recent years, he has often supported causes considered conservative within the Church, but it should not be forgotten that his acting has always been very revolutionary. Actually, Parolin would be the ideal candidate for a pontificate of full continuity with Francis.
Originally from Ghana, he would be the first African pope in over fifteen centuries. Known for his commitment to social justice, ecology, and human rights, he has long embodied a vision of the Church attentive to contemporary challenges. However, his profile, sometimes seen as too moderate, and his distance from the dominant ideological currents within the College of Cardinals, make his election unlikely.
He is apparently a less leading papabile compared to others, but he has acknowledged in the past that his election is "technically possible." Strongly in favor of LGBT inclusion in the Church and the female diaconate, he considers Víctor Manuel Fernández, the current Prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, a "true giant with great intellect and experience."
Long considered Bergoglio's protégé, so much so that he has been nicknamed "Asian Francis." In 2022, however, the incumbent interrupted his tenure as president of Caritas Internationalis following an independent review that identified shortcomings within the institution. A member of the Bologna Theological School, which interprets the Second Vatican Council in full discontinuity with previous doctrine and practice.
Although not a leading papabile, he is considered a potential compromise candidate for the next conclave. Despite his relatively young age (59 years), he is very close to Francis. Electing cardinals who desire a very long and continuous papacy, certainly heterodox and modernist, with an even greater revolutionary impulse than Francis, might find this cardinal the ideal candidate.
Very close to Pope Francis, Matteo Zuppi is seen as one of the leading representatives of the progressive wing of the Church. Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Episcopal Conference since 2022, he is known for his dialogue skills, his attention to the marginalized, and his advocacy for migrants and LGBT people. His inclusive pastoral approach and role in promoting synodality make him a serious candidate to continue some of the directions pursued in recent years. However, some might view his profile as too ideologically marked.
