The white smoke that rose above the Sistine Chapel on May 8, 2025, at 6:07 PM marked the end of a remarkably brief conclave. In just 24 hours and four rounds of voting, the 133 cardinal electors chose American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the 267th pope of the Catholic Church. This rapid election nevertheless conceals intense negotiations and strategic alliances that deserve closer analysis.
The Key Players Before the Conclave
The Parolin Party: The Fallen Favorite
Entering the conclave, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Vatican Secretary of State under Francis, was widely considered the front-runner. This seasoned diplomat enjoyed extensive international experience and a deep understanding of the Curia's inner workings. Around him had formed an "Italian squad" hoping to return the papacy to an Italian.
According to sources close to the conclave, Parolin reportedly received between 40 and 45 votes in the first ballot – insufficient to generate winning momentum.
Other Factions
The progressive bloc, mostly appointed by Francis, potentially represented the largest group but suffered from a lack of consensus around a single candidate. Names like Philippine Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Brazilian Cardinal Sérgio da Rocha, and Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi circulated within this group.
Conservative cardinals, though a minority, constituted an influential group with figures such as Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah and Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő.
Cardinals from Africa, Latin America, and Asia formed an informal but growing bloc, reflecting the shifting center of gravity of the Catholic Church toward the Global South.
Robert Francis Prevost: The Emergence of a Consensus Candidate
A Unique Profile
At 69, Prevost presented a singular profile that made him acceptable to different factions. American by birth but having spent much of his career in Peru, he embodied a bridge between North and South. As an Augustinian religious, he brought the perspective of religious orders to a College of Cardinals dominated by diocesan prelates.
His recent appointment (2023) as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops had allowed him to become familiar with the Roman Curia without being perceived as a career "curial." This strategic position had also given him the opportunity to meet numerous bishops and cardinals from around the world.
The Architects of His Election
Prevost's election was facilitated by several key figures. Italian Cardinal Giuseppe Versaldi played a decisive role by building a network of protection and credibility around Prevost within the Italian episcopate.
An unexpected but crucial support came from American Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke, an emblematic figure among conservatives. Burke reportedly recognized in Prevost "a sober and orthodox alternative to the excesses of ambiguity in recent years." This support helped present Prevost as a candidate capable of transcending traditional divisions.
The Augustinian network, although discreet, also provided effective support, particularly among Latin American cardinals.
Prevost's election may also have been influenced by economic considerations. Coming from the American Church and with an international profile, the new pope is perceived as "a great organizer who could help restore order to Vatican finances." This dimension is significant in a context where the Holy See's financial difficulties have intensified in recent years, requiring more rigorous and transparent resource management. His varied experience across different cultures and his pragmatic approach could thus contribute to resolving these economic challenges facing the Roman Curia.
In the days preceding the conclave, prominent Italian Vatican expert Giovanni Maria Vian already designated Cardinal Prevost as the absolute outsider, likely to become the favorite in case of neutralization between the major "papabili." By the time the conclave doors closed, Rome was indeed buzzing with his name.
The Archbishop of New York, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, played a decisive role as kingmaker, mobilizing voters from North and South America, predominantly English-speaking, as well as those linked to the Commonwealth, from South Africa to India and the Tonga Islands.
The Dynamics of the Conclave: Four Ballots Toward Consensus
First Day: Initial Positions
The first ballot primarily served to measure the forces present. According to some accounts, Parolin, Tagle, and Erdő entered the race with substantial support:
- Pietro Parolin: approximately 40-45 votes
- Luis Antonio Tagle: approximately 25 votes
- Péter Erdő: approximately 20 votes
Contrary to initial estimates that attributed only about ten votes to him, Prevost reportedly gathered a significant number of votes from this first round, alongside other candidates like Zuppi and Aveline who also obtained some votes.
However, according to Italian sources, Cardinals Parolin and Tagle quickly neutralized each other from the first rounds. While Parolin had a significant bloc of 40 to 50 votes according to estimates, this number remained insufficient to reach the 89 votes necessary for election.
Pope Francis's supporters presented themselves divided into several groups, unable to propose a coherent alternative. Some analysts suggest that the controversial agreement concluded with the Beijing government may have harmed Parolin's chances. Moreover, a persistent rumor mentions a secret agreement between the Cardinal of Vicenza and Philippine Cardinal Luis Tagle, an alliance that ultimately did not withstand the test of facts, allowing votes to shift toward Prevost and favoring his election by the fourth round.
Second Day: The Rise to Power
May 8 began with two morning ballots that shifted the balance of power. The second ballot saw a significant movement toward Prevost, who reportedly increased to about 25 votes.
It was during the lunch break at the Santa Marta residence that decisive discussions took place. Cardinal Wilton Gregory revealed that Prevost engaged in conversations with clergy members in "small groups" during the conclave, specifically during meals and coffee breaks.
Gregory specified: "It wasn't as if he stood up and made an incredibly convincing speech that wowed the assembly." Cardinal Robert McElroy added that it wasn't so much the content of what Prevost said but the "manner in which he said it" that resonated with the cardinals.
The Decisive Ballot
The afternoon ballot on May 8 finally saw a rapid convergence toward Prevost. Faced with the impasse among leading candidates, many cardinals perceived Prevost as a viable alternative.
Several factors accelerated this movement:
- The Latin American bloc largely rallied behind Prevost
- Many Italian cardinals preferred to support Prevost rather than see an Asian or African cardinal elected
- Conservative cardinals were influenced by the support of Burke and O'Malley
- The "unclassifiable group" massively shifted to Prevost
In the fourth ballot, Prevost reportedly obtained more than 90 votes, well exceeding the two-thirds majority required.
Parolin's Failure: Reasons for a Deadlock
Cardinal Parolin, despite his position as favorite, failed to gather the necessary majority for several reasons:
- The "favorite syndrome" - the adage "He who enters the conclave as pope leaves as cardinal" was once again verified
- Resistance from non-European cardinals who perceived Parolin as the symbol of governance too centered on Rome
- Opposition from American cardinals, particularly on the issue of relations with China
- An ambivalent perception regarding his relationship with Francis's pontificate
The Decisive Alliances
Prevost's election was made possible by several strategic alliances:
The American-Latin American Axis
A convergence was established between North American and Latin American cardinals, united by Prevost's unique profile, both a native of Chicago and deeply rooted in Peruvian reality.
The Italian Mediation
Some Italian cardinals, disappointed by Parolin's stagnation, orchestrated a progressive rallying to Prevost. This mediation was facilitated by the connections Prevost had established with Italy during his studies and his tenure as Prior General of the Augustinians.
The Bridge Between Reformists and Traditionalists
An unexpected alliance formed between cardinals with very different sensibilities. Figures such as progressive Cardinal Blase Cupich and conservative Raymond Burke found themselves supporting the same candidate, testifying to Prevost's ability to appear as a "bridge" between different visions of the Church.
The Choice of Name: A Declaration of Intent
Robert Francis Prevost's choice of the name Leo XIV constitutes a declaration of intent that reveals his priorities.
By referring to Leo XIII (1878-1903), Prevost establishes a link with a pontificate marked by the Church's opening to social questions, notably through the encyclical Rerum Novarum (1891).
This choice suggests that Leo XIV intends to place social issues, the dignity of work, and the fight against inequalities at the heart of his pontificate, while inscribing himself in the great theological and doctrinal tradition of the Church.
Leo XIV's Future Team
As soon as his election was announced, speculation began about the key appointments the new pope might make.
The Secretariat of State
Leo XIV might keep Parolin in position during a transitional period while preparing his replacement. The name of Monsignor Luis Marín de San Martín, a Spanish bishop and Augustinian, is frequently mentioned for the position of Substitute for General Affairs.
Key Collaborators
Other important figures could include:
- Monsignor Fabio Fabene, former secretary of the Dicastery for Bishops
- Monsignor Ilson de Jesus Montanari, Brazilian and Latin America expert
- Sister Nathalie Becquart, a balance point between synodality and governance
- Father Alejandro Moral Antón, Prior General of the Augustinians
A Turning Point in Church History?
The conclave that elected Robert Francis Prevost as Pope Leo XIV could mark a significant turning point in the recent history of the Catholic Church.
With the first American pope (after a Polish, a German, and an Argentine), this conclave confirms that the papacy is no longer the prerogative of Europeans. This evolution reflects the progressive shift in the center of gravity of the Catholic Church toward the Americas, Africa, and Asia.
The leadership style that emerged during the conclave – focused on listening, dialogue, and the search for consensus – could also herald a new model for the Church in a polarized world.
Finally, Prevost's election leaves open the question of the future of the reforms initiated by Francis. His middle position suggests a desire for consolidation rather than rupture or acceleration, an "inwardly listening Church" rather than an "outgoing Church."
