As the conclave scheduled for May 7 approaches, the College of Cardinals enters a decisive phase marked by uncertainty, strategic silence, and contrasting hopes for a Church seeking clear direction. While the Vatican remains closed to any official communication, numerous statements, leaks, and analyses published this Sunday reveal a divided ecclesiastical landscape, but one resolutely turned toward a future it hopes will be inspired.

No General Congregation This Sunday, But Intense Behind-the-Scenes Preparation

On Sunday, May 4, 2025, no general congregation was held at the Vatican, unlike previous days. This scheduled pause allowed the cardinals to withdraw for prayer, personal reflection, and informal exchanges in preparation for the conclave that will open in three days.

According to internal Vatican sources, several private meetings took place in cardinal residences, particularly at the Domus Sanctae Marthae and in pontifical embassies. This time of apparent silence is in reality a key moment when final alliances are formed and the profiles of potential candidates are refined.

Schedule for the Coming Days:

• Monday, May 5: General congregations resume in the morning and afternoon. Each cardinal will speak for three minutes on the current challenges facing the Church and the profile of the future pontiff.

• Tuesday, May 6: Final general congregation in the morning. At 5 PM, a time of community prayer is scheduled in St. Peter's Basilica, presided over by the dean of the College of Cardinals, followed by a procession to the Sistine Chapel.

• Wednesday, May 7 at 9:30 AM: Beginning of the conclave. The 133 cardinal electors will take an oath of secrecy and enter into seclusion. The first ballot could take place as early as the afternoon.

No Majority, But Emerging Figures

In a long article in El País, journalists describe a conclave "plunged into disarray" where no group has managed to unite around a clear candidate (El País, May 4, 2025). This lack of consensus between progressives and conservatives opens the way for unexpected profiles.

The Spanish daily identifies eight "papabili," divided between compromise figures (Parolin, Zuppi, Tagle, Grech, Prevost) and outsiders (Arborelius, Pizzaballa, Aveline), but acknowledges that "no one seems close to the two-thirds necessary for election," which suggests a potentially long conclave.

Positions Taken and Renunciations

On May 4, several cardinal voices expressed themselves. Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, Archbishop of Rabat, publicly renounced any papal ambition, confiding to TF1 Info that he "does not feel called to this mission" (TF1 Info, May 4, 2025).

For his part, Cardinal Gualtiero Bassetti, in the columns of the Italian newspaper Avvenire, expressed a wish: "that the new pope embody a synthesis of Benedict XVI and Francis," combining doctrinal firmness and pastoral openness (Avvenire, May 4, 2025).

Asia, a Rising Voice Within the Electoral College

An analysis by the Zenit agency highlights that 23 Asian electors will be present in the Sistine Chapel, a historic record (Zenit, May 4, 2025). This growing presence reflects the geopolitical shift of Catholicity toward the South and East, and could favor profiles from regions less represented in the past.

Silence as Testimony

In a meditative editorial, Avvenire evokes the silence of the conclave as "a sign in the noise of the world" (Avvenire, May 4, 2025). The closing of the Sistine Chapel, the absence of public communication from the cardinals, and the spirituality that permeates their reflections already seem to imbue this conclave with a contemplative tone.

Cross-Analyses and Testimonies

In an opinion article published by The Guardian, a former member of the Curia describes this conclave as "the most unpredictable of his generation," because of the deconstruction of traditional blocs (The Guardian, May 4, 2025). According to him, the current climate does not favor classic candidacies, but rather figures capable of surprising or uniting beyond ideological lines.